Jeff's Judgments - Round 9

[Jeff]

Sorry for lack of confession. I've been mentally battling whether or not this is the same round or a new round and I think I came to the conclusion that since people are returning and two new people are being voted out, it is probably a new round. Then I got lazy.

Anyway, Ozzy leaving really sucked honestly. I see him as a threat, but also a loyal ally. So my hand was pretty much forced last round because forcing a tie just wasn't smart. I tried to explain to Ozzy that there was nothing I could do and that I did try to get people to vote a different way, but Jamie winning immunity really put everything on him. This was all true, though I probably didn't put myself as out there as I could have, but I'm not going to ruin my own game just to appease Ozzy who I thought wouldn't be even a Jury member. Was wrong now, but I couldn't have anticipated this at the time. Anyway, on his way out, I felt like he was threatening me almost. Basically told me I was being dumb voting him out (nothing I could do) and then said Jamie and Matty had been talking to him saying how bringing me to the end is dangerous or something. Good to note, but it wasn't something that I was like "hey thanks for going out classy!" He has every right to be upset, but he said he would not root for those that betrayed him and, honestly, I don't necessarily think I betrayed him; there wasn't anything I could have done. But whatever.

So, moving onto the next round there was treemail saying the game would change once again. Didn't expect that, was hoping for a merge again, obviously. So, knowing two people would be coming back really put a damper for me because, although I'm sure it will be stated that this just recently happened to me, it's frustrating from this point of view LOL. Every Tribal Council I have been to, I have voted out the person who left. So, I know all of them know this as well and I honestly didn't know who I wanted to see come back. I knew that I did not want Ian back in the game for sure. He's crazy and although he told me he learned from his mistakes, there was no way I would want him going back to his Barra buddies. Ozzy and Shane were two that I didn't really want back at all, Ozzy mainly after what he had said to me and how I felt he was threatening me. The only person on the list that I knew I wanted back was Osten. Despite voting him, I knew he would be someone who was loyal and I still wanted to get him that Jury placement.


After talking with some of them and then seeing campaigns though, I quickly realized that maybe I would want Ozzy back. Lesser of any other evil I guess. The surprise for me though was Shane. I wasn't sure what he thought after being voted out and he did vote me on his way out and I still didn't really know why. Apparently that round my name was tossed around a lot, but Tom wanted Osten and so Shane threw his vote in case an idol was played. Makes sense. Him and I didn't connect much on original Penedo, so just like I voted him because there was no reason not to, that's why he threw a vote my way. When we got to talking, we realized there wasn't any bad blood between us and basically, Shane told me he was going to go wherever Tom went and work with whoever Tom was working with. THAT'S ME! Basically I told Shane I would vote him in if he was willing to come here and give me that immunity. So, we struck a deal and honestly, I wasn't sure if he would keep it.

Sure enough, as you could see, he came here right away and he gave that immunity to me. I'm absolutely relieved and mostly because I had no idea what was going to happen at this Tribal and I basically wanted to make sure that I would be safe no matter what. So, for the first time, I'm immune at Tribal Council and can freely feel things out without having to worry about serious repercussions. The issue right now is supposedly that Tom told him not to come here and go over there to be like a double agent or something. It seems that they had some plan and now Tom thinks Shane just screwed up everything. Oops! I think it's pretty much because of me. I'm not sure if Shane thinks that since we had 4 Penedo over here that he would just be able to work with us, and I honestly thought it would be the case, but Tom shut that down uh-real quick! He wants Matty and Jamie's trust moving forward and wants Shane out. Makes sense I guess. Tom has a lot of friends across the board and I've been with a lot of the same people, so he seems to have his plans laid out and ready to go and he even let me in on a bit of those last night and just his plans to get with Ozzy/Steph and move forward, etc. I think Tom expects a breezy merge and, although I did too, I think he's a bit more set up than I am...so this might be the time for me to seize that.

So Tom wants Jamie spared (after trying to get him out before he had immunity last round?) and now wants Shane out. I don't know Tom's initial plans with Shane, but Tom seems to think that Shane sticking around is worse for his game. I'm nervous about Penedo having too many members in merge and people targeting us because of it, but honestly, Shane did me a huge favor here and, although I may not have needed it, Shane is now going to be a Juror and I have to think for myself moving forward. Voting Shane right back out might not be the best thing for my game. There isn't much to be done about that except force a tie (which Chelsea probably wouldn't do since she didn't want Shane back in in the first place) and I may regret ALL of this and this will be the move I look back on and wonder what could have been if I just stuck to the more sensible thing to do, but Shane has the idol and basically it's causing a ton of paranoia around here on how we can keep him from playing it and vote him out with it in his pocket. Well, I'm thinking maybe I will just drop him a hint and let him know to use it and send Jamie right out the door. I don't really connect with Jamie a ton and that would weaken a member of Novais (who I think will soon be a problem) and it will also take a solid member away from Tom and Matty which could move me up more in their ranks.

This is something I need to think of, but, if anything, Shane would be in my corner moving forward, I would lose a middle road person like Jamie who I don't have a connection with, and I keep someone like Shane in the game who a lot of people probably want gone and hopefully that will keep eyes off of me. I think this would be a good move for me, so we could quite possibly see this idol come out, but it would have to be that I still vote Shane out because if I don't, I lose the trust of everyone and am in big trouble. I need to someone make sure that Shane uses the idol but votes Jamie and everyone else sticks to the plan. I could see Jamie throwing his vote to make sure he stays and that vote would be going to Chelsea. At that point, it could spell danger. I really need to think all of this through and see how I can make this happen for me.

[Jeff]

So while I was getting ready in the shower, I realized that I could honestly have a great position after this round and get what I want. I don't care much whether Jamie or Shane goes I guess, but I feel like I owe it to Shane to at least try and keep him in the game still...but I don't want to be the one that throws a rogue vote. I'm not the one on the chopping block here, it's Jamie and Chelsea I think. Chelsea is pretty concerned that if Shane idols anyone out, it will be her. So, I'm not going to tell her that Shane is 100% voting Jamie because I still want her thinking she is in trouble.

Basically, I'm going to try to convince her to do to Jamie what Ozzy did to her and throw her vote his direction just in case Shane does play the idol, which is honestly a great possibility since I already mentioned he might need to play it. He seemed shocked at this news in his offline message to me, so it seems Tom is leading him on pretty well. I honestly feel like if an idol is played and Jamie goes home, Tom can't be too furious about it. But basically, the big thing about this is that since Jamie is so concerned about being idol'd out or just being voted straight out by the former Penedo, he might also throw a rogue vote to try and ensure his safety. THIS is the vote I'm worried about because it could then end in a 1-1 tie between Chelsea and Jamie in which case Chelsea would go home. I feel I need Chelsea a bit longer in this game and I need her to swing this game in my favor, so losing her really isn't an option right now.

Best thing for me to do is to tell Shane to play the idol, he does. That's nothing off my back and Shane now becomes a loyal ally as we've both helped each other and he sees no one else had his back. Then I tell Chelsea to throw her vote on Jamie. This not only avoids that potential tie, but it sends Jamie home and, since I'm voting Shane, it makes Chelsea look bad through it all. I think I come out of this completely clean and with what I want. Moving forward, Chelsea and Shane are likely going to be bigger targets than me (though Shane might not since he won't have an idol anymore), but this buys me time and if a Penedo eradication happens, I likely would be spared from it. This is risky and it might not go the way I plan especially since Shane is quite unpredictable, but I think it's the right move for me. Let's see what happens.

[Jeff]

Everyone wants Shane gone...but for some reason I feel this is a good move for me. I convinced Chelsea to go for Jamie. She wanted to vote Matty to force the three way tie so he wouldn't have a vote, but I feel that would result in her going home. And, if not, we would have Matty still in the game and upset, so it wouldn't make sense when she could just vote Jamie with Shane and take Jamie out. I think this will open up a slot for me to get in with a bigger alliance and this will loosen Matty's loyalties up a bit which will help me.

I may be completely wrong in all of this, but I think Shane staying and Jamie going will be better for me in the long run. I'm definitely playing with fire here and I'm hoping not to get burned.