Jeff's Judgments - Round 5

[Jeff]

Alright, so Osten leaving didn't appear all that bad in the grand scheme of things and I don't think it hurt much to be honest, but this round is just crazy, crazy, crazy!

This challenge wasn't even a challenge. Like, we didn't even compete well enough for it to be considered one. We got slaughtered and I don't think there was much we could do about it. We knew we wouldn't have enough people around to begin with, but I really didn't think the challenge would be over so fast. The worst part was that I was able to come around right at the time that we lost. So I got one or two posts in before the host called the challenge. Really just sucks because I've done so well in challenges so far only to not be able to be around for this last one and I might lose a lot of footing because of it.

But moving on, I felt this vote would be pretty straight forward. I was very wrong. This vote is like a food fight on crack. I mean, everyone is throwing crap around and no one is walking away clean from this one. I've heard all sorts of names and a majority of them have come from Ian at some point or another. I think the only name I haven't heard as of yet is Crystal's name...that tells me something. Girl must have boobies like you wouldn't believe to be on everyone's nice list. I could tell she was a good social player and also she's done very well in challenges. I've also noticed her and Chelsea have been getting rather close. I think they have some type of pact and they want to take me along because they both really like me. I would expect that if this game was a final 2, I would get third. Lots of game left, so I'm not going to worry all too much about that at the moment, but their relationship is seemingly pretty tight.


Ian informed me he has the idol and thought if he felt I was in any sort of danger that he would play it on me. But this dude is seriously ADHD or like on sugar pills or something! It's just a constant back and forth and him freaking out to me and name dropping then him going to someone else and name dropping; it doesn't stop. Like when I picture Ian, I just see him as like his head printed on a squirrel's body and just like rushing back and forth in the middle of the street waiting for a car to come hit him. It's hard to handle. He's a little freak LOL. I kind of like him, but I can't imagine he would be the most loyal ally...and I feel I would be popping ibuprofen for the remainder of the game if we continue to stick together. We will see. Apparently he likes me though and he spits info like a fountain.

Which brings me to Steph. This girl is someone I liked at the beginning, but then she completely dropped off and I haven't been able to catch her on in days. We're kind of playing phone tag right now trying to catch the other online only to miss them and get an offline from them hours later. What's really irritating is she then messaged me and was like "OMG we keep missing each other" when literally the night before we were both on at the same time and after one message, she logged off and left. Ok, so we definitely know who the issue is here.

But this girl is pretty much the target this round as far as I can believe. I was very alright with it because I've bonded with Ozzy and wanted to just make sure myself, Chelsea, and Ozzy were safe. So the target landed on Steph and all was good. Then Steph starts running her mouth. Basically Ian has told her to vote me. WHAT! Ian, what are you doing? I mean, I know they're throwing my name out as the other vote so Steph doesn't vote them and I know where the idol is and that it won't be played on her, but I don't want to be anyone's scapegoat here. It's not good. It doesn't make me feel on top of the totem pole at all.

So Ozzy eventually came to me and asked me if I had a deal with Ian where I said no. He then relayed info to me that Ian was telling him to vote me as well and yada yada. The way he explained everything made it pretty clear to me that Ozzy and Steph were the ones being played, but apparently there is some 5 person chat with old Barra and Novais together and they're trying to decide between Chelsea and I. Great. I still think they're being played and that initially Barra probably liked them and wanted to work with them, but still, it's something to think about that none of the 3 Barra as much as they "like me" and "want to work with me" haven't told me about this little chat room.

So Ozzy proposed that since we need Ian for challenges (agreed) no matter how skiddish he is, that we should vote out Joaq. Me and Chelsea voting with Steph and Ozzy would give us a majority for this round at least. But basically at this point, Steph has thrown Ian under the bus to me, thrown me under the bus to Ian, has thrown Crystal under the bus to me. There are a lot of busses and a lot of us are lying underneath them. The issue I'm having now is even though voting out Joaq might leave me with more power and fate more in my hands next round, Steph seemingly will do whatever the hell she can to stay out of the spotlight and will throw anyone under the bus she needs to in order to survive. Who knows what she may do next round. My hope would be that she votes with Chelsea and I again to get rid of Ian, or that then Chelsea and I can go with Ian and Crystal and vote Steph out if we lose again, but I'm wondering how this vote may affect either my relationship with Crystal or my relationship with Ozzy. Ozzy will be terrified next round and Ian won't have an idol, so it would be the perfect time to then scoop Ozzy up and just take out Ian...it all depends on if Crystal is being 100% with Chelsea and I and I'm not sure I want to leave all that up to chance.

This whole vote is a mess. But the vote would either be between Joaq or Steph right now and it all just depends on who I feel I can trust more moving forward. Both sides probably have perks, but I really need to think this all through.

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[Jeff]

I've been thinking more and more today while at work and really trying to kind of crunch numbers here. I'm not expecting Tom to stick with us if we were to get back together at some point unless he absolutely felt like he would be one of the people to go if their tribe went to Tribal Council. Sierra is probably a different story. I feel like she may not even be so interested in the game anymore just by her board activity, but if I can get back with her, that's surely a vote for me. Outside of that, I have no idea who I might be able to get with me since I don't talk to any of them.

I've been trying to get some information today on the old Barra camp just to see what relationships/life was like. Ian and Crystal seem to be saying that since they only went to one Tribal and it was a pretty easy decision, there wasn't a ton of strategizing going on and in terms of overall trust, they didn't really have the chances to build any. I can buy into that, but I also can't imagine that no deals were made over there. I'm beginning to see that Ian is someone who reaches out for that stuff, so there has to be some group working together from Barra even if they aren't super tight. I'd assume Ian and Crytal are both a part of it just based on social and physical elements. Anyway, I'm just not assuming that if and when we merge that Barra would just take total control, but it's something to think about...because it would be pretty easy depending.

I just need to be looking at the bigger picture and keeping myself protected. But it is funny to me how old Penedo (particularly Chelsea and myself) went from losing a member to now we are the swing votes that could really shake up the game. Chelsea basically told me if I think it's a good idea to vote out either Joaq or Steph then she would follow me. So pretty much this whole round is left in my hands and although that's kind of a big deal and potentially scary, it's a good place to be. Either we join the Barra 3 and vote out Steph who has been causing some problems, or we join Ozzy and Steph and take out Joaq.

Now, Ozzy pitched this to me, but I was basically just sitting idle and waiting for someone to bring up another option. Not that I was trying to save Steph because I ultimately didn't care, but because I like options. Options in a game and an opportunity to shift the fate of the game is always welcome especially if I'm the one who gets to make the choice. Then down the line, I can either own that as something that propelled my game, or I can sulk over it because it's the reason I lost and I can only blame myself LOL.

I have been looking at both scenarios. If we vote out Steph right now, then we have an upset Ozzy. The next Tribal, he could either stick with us and maybe force a tie at best (if Crystal is lying about wanting Ian out) or he could just join them and pick off myself or Chelsea. If we vote out Joaq, Chelsea has told me Crystal said as long as it's not her, she's not too concerned. That opens the door for not a lot of flack from changing the vote. Ian and Crystal both want alliances with Chelsea and I apparently. Crystal has told me this, Ian has not. He has only asked for a deal from our first conversation. But he's also been throwing every name out there for the vote, including some of the PW's I'm pretty sure. For a second I thought we were supposed to vote Tyson out.

It's just a hard situation right now because both options seem appealing and both look like they could get me through this stage of the game, but I also want to look farther down the line and who I could potentially work with and also how to keep numbers balanced. I feel like I trust Ozzy and Crystal. Don't trust Ian or Steph. If we keep Ozzy and Steph, they clearly have no connection to their old tribe and wouldn't have a place to go really, so they will likely stick with me and Chelsea. Ian/Crystal/Joaq have Barra and an active tribe that they liked. Easy enough to just go back there at least to weed out a good amount of players. I feel like I can maintain more control if Joaq goes here as opposed to Steph. At that point, I would be just hoping Ian and Crystal really do want an alliance with myself and Chelsea and we would basically be answering to them in order to get through this part of the game. I'm not really sure I want that...would anyone really? I don't think so.

I'm leaning towards Joaq going, then explaining to Crystal and Ian that we do want to work with them but we felt it would be easier to get Joaq out so it wasn't them and that would allow us to work together while still just keeping numbers down. I would obviously make it more charming of an appeal than that, but that would be the gist of it. I think Crystal and Ian are rational...I think Crystal is rational enough to understand where we will be coming from and I don't think we will get a ton of backlash for this. I could be wrong, but for the time being at least, Crystal and Ian will have to play nice.

[Jeff]

Of course, right after I say that, chimes the Joaq instant message that says "I wanted to make sure we're good because I talk to you the most on this tribe". Great. Thanks, conscience. Now it makes sense for me to keep Joaq and get rid of Steph or even Ian instead. I mean, why do these messages have to happen. Why do I have to be so socially indulgent? Why do I have to be so appealing? Life is hard.

[Jeff]

I just can't get that out of my head. Joaq actually trusts me I think and he would probably work with me long term and he is someone I think I can get with and be comfortable with if I need it. We've connected on a good level and stuff outside the game and I haven't found that or any sort of glimpse that I can trust Ian moving forward.

So, I decided to get this vote switched to Ian. He has this idol and this is terrifying because if he even feels the slightest bit nervous about the vote, then he could just play it to be safe. And playing something "just to be safe" might be stupid, but if it actually works and is the reason he stays around, then that just causes problems for everyone. We're treading thin ice right now and I'm just hoping we can skate across safely.

If Ian is gone, I'm not sure how that might affect Crystal and Joaq, but at least it ain't them. Maybe I'm holding my position with these people higher than I should and maybe I'm giving my abilities to keep people on my side a bit too much credit, but I do genuinely feel that moving forward, I can still keep Crystal and Joaq in my corner while ousting Ian. I still need to give this more thought, but right now, my vote is for Ian.

[Jeff]

That was terrifying.