Jeff's Judgments - Round 4

[Jeff]

It was nice yesterday not having to be around a ton and having to scramble and figure out how to save my fat ass! Nice relaxing day and I kind of anticipated a swap, so I wasn't necessarily worried about not being around a ton for my tribe. Maybe not the smartest move, but sometimes you just need a day off and what better time to take one than after a 48 hour challenge that we came first in. FIRST! Weird for us!

Anyway, just like anticipated, we swapped. Saw it coming and that's perfectly fine. All I could do is mentally prepare myself for it. I couldn't really set myself up at all and there was no one on either of the opposing tribes that I was dying to get with because I don't know any of them. The swap worked out pretty alright for me I think, though I would trade Sierra for Osten, but oh well. We have a split of three former Penedo, three former Barra, and two former Novais. Very tricky. If it's any indicator from watching the show in general, it should end up the threesomes will be vying for the former Novais votes. I'm not sure if it will come down to that or not, but the thought is definitely there and making good first impressions will be very important here. I think people will side who they like more in a swap like this. Active people who are well liked are probably people that others will gravitate to, so that's what I will aim to be and what I will push my former tribe mates to be like.

So, naturally people started talking and the people I connected with first were Ian, Crystal, and Steph. Ian seems a bit odd to me and pretty much within 20 minutes of talking, he offered me an alliance based on the challenge we did round 1. Fine by me, but I'm very skeptical. I didn't actually say I would agree, though I think I did ask if I would just end up joining him, Crystal, and Joaq. He didn't respond until this morning and he said that they weren't all that tight and just worked together on that first vote. Not sure I truly believe that he wouldn't just stick with them at least for now, but it's an offer on the table and that's good in my eyes.

I think my natural tendency is to stick with my original tribe of Chelsea and Osten and try to pull someone over, but I guess if I can get farther going a different route, I wouldn't be opposed. I'm going to play it by ear though. No sense in jumping the gun when we might not even go to Tribal before we hit another swap or something. I do know how much you like your swaps, so I wouldn't be surprised if another was looming.

Anyway, I like Crystal and Steph a lot and I'm just hoping that I've made a good enough first impression that if we do ever go to Tribal, I at least won't be the center of attention. I feel like coming off of my old tribe that I went from the bottom to a position of power and arguably the unofficial tribe leader simply due to challenges. I didn't do anything else that I feel warrants any sort of prominent role, but I am worried that if I do well in another challenge, I could be considered threatening to these other people and then whatever social bonds or strategy I lay out won't really amount to anything. I have to be a bit conscious of the place I'm in right now because I'm not even close to out of the woods right now. I am definitely nervous of what may be to come, but I kind of just have to do what I think is best and that's to take it one day at a time. I'm hoping that I won't have to worry at all about Tribal right now and can just focus on befriending my tribemates, but maybe I shouldn't take such a laid back approach right now and maybe I should get a little aggressive.

The biggest thing right now is that I don't want to appear like I'm commanding and/or too strong right out of the gate. These people are going to look for any and every reason to get numbers in order to secure themselves, so standing out too much is not a good thing. Tribal lines will still take place, so just because someone is strong in challenges won't necessarily help your case now like it did for me back on old Penedo. Now, challenge strength could be a bad thing because you only threaten people who aren't aligned with you as we get further into the game. We will see, but I think my assumption here is right.

[Jeff]

So I didn't really think about the fact that I made an almost identical signature as Penner in season 2...so that was very short-sighted of me. Someone has already noticed, though not someone who actually knows who I am. But I'm a bit of an airhead...and also apparently not entirely creative. Though I never have prided myself on creativity anyway.

[Jeff]

Alright, well that challenge was brutal. I didn't honestly think it would be that close because they seemed to be on just as much as us and always had at least the same amount of people online as us, if not more. Knowing this though, I felt it even more important for me to step up my game and put my all into the challenge. Since I hadn't had the time to talk to everyone on the tribe, I felt the biggest thing that will help me stand out would be my challenge dedication. So, I worked my way to being in the top three posters for my tribe. Good enough.

We lost though and that was a low blow for everyone I think. People worked hard for that challenge and to come up just short really does suck. Basically, I expected this vote to either be Osten or Ozzy as both haven't communicated well and both did the least in the challenge overall. I know Osten told me he wanted us three original Penedos to pick up the two Novais members and have them vote with us, but right now, I'm not sure I see Tribal lines. I see threats and non-threats and I see people I like and enjoy and people I don't like and enjoy. I understand that the first instinct is usually to just get with your original tribe mates and see what you can make out of it, but I'm trying to not be so one dimensional. I've heard the vote is leaning towards Osten and although I will hate to see him get pre-jury yet another time in this series, I look and see that he hasn't really done everything he could to keep himself safe and I cannot afford to work as hard as I have been just to go down trying to save him.

I think looking down the line that Osten leaving won't leave me in a horrible spot. On paper, I think it would then look like Chelsea and I would be the next two to go if we lose again, but I think that Chelsea and I are both valued by our tribe members and this isn't a vote against us or Penedo, but a vote to keep the tribe strong and active as possible. Ultimately someone who a lot of people haven't gotten to know isn't going to be someone they would want to keep around on mine or Chelsea's account. I mean hell, Chelsea and I aren't even that tight with Osten. We just needed him for the Shane vote. But when it comes down to it, people haven't connected with Osten, so it wouldn't make sense for anyone to want to keep him around.

Now that it's out of the way and the vote is decided, it's time to try and make sure I'm set up well for the future. Basically Crystal is my biggest alliance prospect at the moment and she's expressed that she wants an alliance with both myself and Chelsea which is perfect. I am starting to see though more and more that Chelsea really gets around. I think she had a weak round 1, but everyone loves this girl. Something to keep note of in the future. Outside of that, I think Chelsea and Crystal are trying to get something with Steph as well. I wouldn't mind pulling in Ozzy and Steph, but I'm still going to keep all areas open for myself. I'm not looking to stick with tribal lines, but with people I trust and enjoy, like I've said. So basically, I want to see who those people are. You know, get talkin', figure these people out, really try to see who I'd like to go with in the long run. Something tells me these people will be Crystal and Ozzy though. Just something about them, I just feel like I would be able to trust them and bounce ideas in the future. I also know that Crystal likes me a lot and my first conversation with Ozzy was good. Lengthy answers and not a whole lot of fluff which I like to see.

As for people I have my eye on, I'm looking at Ian. Dude messaged me and within minutes of our first conversation, he was antsy and ready to go and offered me an alliance. Crystal knows about this because I'm hoping to cause some dissension between the three Barden Barras if at all possible while trying to be subtle about it. Ian seems to be one of those people that is just...I don't know. He's like all jittery and freaky. Like he's been given one giant bottle of straight syrup and thrown into a room full of trampolines. I don't know, but something about him just seems off to me right now and I wouldn't be too upset if there was a way to get him out relatively soon.

So, all that to say we will see where this all goes in the future. Chelsea has the idol supposedly this round, so paranoia shouldn't be too huge for me. I can't really imagine I would be anyone's target right now. Next round or in a few, yes, but not now. We need to win and tribe strength and activity is important. I think everyone sees that.

[Jeff]

Jaclyn Schultz : I will never stop appreciating you!

[Jaclyn Schultz]

And I will never stop appreciating your confs <3