Jeff's Judgments - Round 2

[Jeff]

Coming into this round, I kind of felt like it was a do-or-die kind of situation. Maybe not for this particular round, but pretty much for the remainder of my time on this tribe. It's obvious there is an alliance between the other three guys at this point, so they shouldn't even bother hiding it. Tom asked me about the vote and I said that I'd like to keep Chelsea around. He said "Then who? Osten?" So I asked him if he'd rather keep Shane over Osten and he said "Shane is better than Osten I think." Good to know. I'm pretty sure Tom and Shane are a tight two with an Osten tagalong and I'm not all for that, so it's probably time they're broken up. Tom spent some time defending Shane to me when I said the challenges should base the vote this round. All interesting stuff to note.

I found out who has the idol this round and it is Chelsea which is beautiful. Means if we don't think we can pull anything off, we always have that thing in the pocket to whip out if we need to. The issue right now is with six people and four of them being "aligned", they can split the vote 2-2-2 and send me packing if Chelsea uses that idol. So the idol doesn't do much help for me unless they all vote together. But why would they? Better safe than sorry, right? But the great thing right now is that Sierra is in my corner with Chelsea, so we have three votes and if they plan to split, then we don't even need to waste the idol at all and we just vote out whoever we want.

I know for a fact that Tom and Shane need to be split up, it's just about which one needs to go. I think it's pretty agreed upon at this point that it should be Shane. While Tom could be dangerous in the future, we think Shane will blow up and terrorize if a vote doesn't go his way and we also see Tom as somewhat valuable despite his shtick and Shane isn't connecting with us like we would want. So, it just makes sense. I'm still going to wait around a bit and hear things out and see the best approach, but right now, it's looking like Shane might be getting the boot which would be quite alright with me. As long as it's any of those three, I won't care.

I'm just not sure at this point if I should tell Osten what Tom said or not. Tom was obviously just seeing who I wanted to vote out and stuff, and I don't want to cause too much conflict right now and ruin our future as a tribe in terms of trust and stuff, but I also would like to secure numbers and not have to worry about things. But if I fool around too much, it could also cause them to see me as a schemer and to just pack 3 votes on me instead of splitting.

The only thing I don't want to see happen this round is to see it tie because then we're either forced to vote out Chelsea or to go to rocks. I'm thinking maybe a smart play would be to vote Tom and then if it happens to tie for some odd reason, I will use what Tom told me to try and flip Osten to vote him out. Not sure yet, but it's a though.

Right now, the safest person in the game is Sierra and she has the most power because she's involved and wanted by everyone on our tribe. She's the only one who could really decide what happens, but I think she likes me and Chelsea a lot and also knows she doesn't have much of a shot sticking with the boy's club.

I'll be at work for the next few hours, but I'll be around and will update on anything big.

[Jeff]

Well today is going to be a blast.

Waiting for Sierra to come back around to talk things through, but Shane told Chelsea he put his vote in for me which is not surprising. I think these people are very scared about this idol. Through all the stress and theories me, Chelsea, and Sierra are bringing about, I'm honestly sitting and trying to figure out what Shane, Tom, and Osten expect or are wanting to happen.

Tom and Shane both seemed to be alright with voting Osten (this came from Sierra) and that's weird to me considering they are all supposedly aligned. I figure right now that they need Sierra, so the smartest thing to do would be to bring her in and tell her what their plan is regarding the vote. I don't think the vote is Osten...at all. It doesn't make sense since Tom and Shane don't have a serious bond or alliance with myself or Chelsea and that would leave them wide open if we were to lose again.

The vote has to be myself or Chelsea and I could see it going either way. Not sure they would prefer one over the other, but they may see me as more threatening across the board. But if they truly do want to keep the tribe strong, then voting out Chelsea might be smarter. Either way, I don't care. Basically what I think they are doing is trying to bring in the least amount of people as possible and probably telling Chelsea to vote me and then telling me and Sierra to vote Osten. That way we split our votes and Chelsea goes home in a 3-2-1 vote or something. I just don't see why else they would tell their supposed alliance mate Sierra to vote against one of their own.

I'm going to be very particular about this vote and how I go about it. I want to draw attention to me a bit, but not where it's obvious. I mentioned half joking to Chelsea that she could always use the idol on me and I think that's her plan. So I feel comfortable at least for this round no matter what because I know I won't be leaving. She says she would rather use it on me because if she used it on herself and then I went home, she could never get the idol again and that would suck for me and Sierra. So she'd rather risk going home knowing that at least me or Sierra could get the idol again. What a great ally! I know I can trust this girl because even I wouldn't think to do that because I'm so dang selfish!

We're going to talk with Osten though and inform him of the votes potentially coming his way. I debated this, but think it's smart to do. Sierra just came around, so we will see what new intel she has about the happenings this round. She needs to shed more light on this whole Tom and Shane wanting to vote Osten thing. Maybe they're not as close as I initially thought.

[Jeff]

So, Sierra talked with Osten and filled him in on things. I assume since they were all loosely aligned, that hearing things from her made the gravity of the situation much greater for Osten, which is good for me. Apparently I should be getting no votes this round and Tom and Shane were being legitimate with the Osten vote. No matter though. I assume Osten is running with us 100% right now. I know Osten was Coach in this series, so I can't imagine he trusts Shane or even likes him all that much after how Tuvalu went, so this could be a perfect situation for me.

Osten would honestly be dumb to be playing us here, so I think he is being real. But I won't ever underestimate the minds of people in these games and what exactly they might do because it feels justified at the time. Some people just want to be remembered and those are the people I want to watch out for. But Osten has placed pre-jury in this series multiple times and there is a reason for that, so to say I'm going to be confident right now would be a lie. I still wouldn't be surprised if he told Tom and Shane something was going down and tied the vote. It would be stupid, but people are stupid. They just are. So, I'm trying to ask Osten about Shane and what happened in those games and trying to get him to know exactly why he should stick with us and make a new majority. Osten to me is the Dan of Luanda - he is very loyal yet emotionally charged. He stuck with me in Palawa while knowing he was on a sinking ship and tanking his game, so what would keep him from tying the vote and going to rocks...which he would be eligible for. Who knows. I'm going to try and think positively, but I'm also not going to hold my breath.

The vote will be Shane and good riddance. The guy is a piece of work. I don't necessarily see the appeal, but him asking who had the idol in the tribe chat was something to chuckle at. Just hoping to see his name written down four times and watch him walk out the door...'cos then it wouldn't be me. LOL!

I think at this point I'm safe and if this all goes as planned, I should be good until a swap. What will happen then, I haven't the slightest idea. I have ways I'm thinking of on how to maneuver myself and trying to come up with stories to make it seem like I'm on the outs (which I was up until about 10 minutes ago) and hopefully I will be picked up as a vote for someone until the merge as opposed to being picked off because I'm on the tribe that has less members. I'm safe for now which is nice. Takin' it one day at a time and hopefully that will take me deep into the game. The game is still young - I shouldn't have to stress about too many things yet, but it never hurts to be prepared. Like my mentor always tells me, the 5 P's: Poor Planning Prevents Peak Performance.

[Jeff]

My heart is happy